European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rest Farmerswin 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 15 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
464 picks · 202 bans
Tiny
418 picks · 573 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 747 bans
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 562 bans
Rubick
390 picks · 155 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 689 bans
Mars
340 picks · 559 bans
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 1064 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:48
Rest Farmers 66%SIBE Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 32:51.
Game 2prediction missed48:56
Rest Farmers 66%SIBE Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 1:07:46.
Game 3prediction missed7:43
Rest Farmers 66%SIBE Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 27:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 66%
Series resultRest Farmers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3