Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
RISE Esportswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HFloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RISE Esports
No games played over 6 months.
HF
Tiny
nicky`cool · 8 games
Techiessignature
weebian · 7 games
Tuskoften banned
toshiyb · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastery · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 6 games
Lycanoften banned
Actor · 6 games
Miranaoften banned
SOhY · 6 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
xannii · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
427 picks · 433 bans
Rubick
421 picks · 280 bans
Tiny
413 picks · 390 bans
Mirana
313 picks · 318 bans
Treant Protector
276 picks · 329 bans
Snapfire
251 picks · 133 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 596 bans
Crystal Maiden
223 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% RISE Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:28
RISE Esports 50%HF 50%
The model gave 50% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 46:48.
Game 2prediction correct20:34
RISE Esports 50%HF 50%
The model gave 50% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 51:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 50%
Series resultRISE Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2