Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
RISE Esportswin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sigma.YNTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RISE Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Sigma.YNT
Tiny
queezy · 31 game
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 18 games
Skywrath Mage
queezy · 17 games
Batridersignature
toshiyb · 16 games
Dazzle
dSa · 14 games
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
dSa · 13 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
479 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
471 picks · 461 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 407 bans
Mirana
336 picks · 331 bans
Treant Protector
326 picks · 379 bans
Snapfire
288 picks · 148 bans
Ember Spirit
263 picks · 655 bans
Pangolier
253 picks · 614 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Sigma.YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Sigma.YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:22
RISE Esports 42%Sigma.YNT 58%
The model gave 58% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 46:26.
Game 2prediction correct11:42
RISE Esports 42%Sigma.YNT 58%
The model gave 58% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 36:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteSigma.YNT · 58%
Series resultRISE Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2