ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Riyadh Chefswin 1:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Woofer Fansloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Riyadh Chefs
Magnus
OwnedMe · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
OwnedMe · 1 game
Woofer Fans
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
228 picks · 264 bans
Dark Willow
227 picks · 106 bans
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
193 picks · 413 bans
Phoenix
193 picks · 250 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 409 bans
Earth Spirit
174 picks · 277 bans
Earthshaker
172 picks · 173 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Riyadh Chefs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Riyadh Chefs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Riyadh Chefs 69%Woofer Fans 31%
The model gave 69% on Riyadh Chefs — the game was taken by Riyadh Chefs.
Model check result
Model favoriteRiyadh Chefs · 69%
Series resultRiyadh Chefs 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1