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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Cloud Risingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 11 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 10 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
生死 · 10 games
30%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LOyd · 9 games
44%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
CatYou · 9 games
11%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
43%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
LOyd · 7 games
29%

Cloud Rising

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 7 games
29%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Ice Coke · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 4 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Yumeyume · 3 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sheep · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Q7 · 3 games
33%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
100%
Lich
Lich
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
638 picks · 435 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
560 picks · 313 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 588 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
459 picks · 395 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
435 picks · 652 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
353 picks · 1022 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
348 picks · 534 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 304 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Cloud Rising
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:40
Roar Gaming 59%Cloud Rising 41%
The model gave 59% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 1:05:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyukiyo
51% · 407 games53% · 43 games
NecrophosYumeyume
Necrophos
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
53% · 275 games48% · 316 games
Storm SpiritQ7
Storm Spirit
Night Stalker
Night Stalker生死
46% · 42 games51% · 135 games
Primal BeastIce Coke
Primal Beast
Lion
LionCatYou
54% · 136 games45% · 352 games
Warlock谢乐zzz张泽中
Warlock
Bane
BaneLOyd
51% · 177 games49% · 191 game
Rubicksheep
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed11:24
Roar Gaming 59%Cloud Rising 41%
The model gave 59% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 37:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeukiyo
40% · 180 games50% · 231 game
KezYumeyume
Kez
Tiny
TinyButterflyEffect
48% · 475 games53% · 202 games
DoomIce Coke
Doom
Slardar
Slardar生死
49% · 339 games53% · 481 game
PuckQ7
Puck
Windranger
WindrangerCatYou
47% · 294 games56% · 35 games
Witch Doctor谢乐zzz张泽中
Witch Doctor
Silencer
SilencerLOyd
53% · 185 games53% · 524 games
Hoodwinksheep
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed10:27
Roar Gaming 56%Cloud Rising 44%
The model gave 56% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 41:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertaukiyo
48% · 257 games50% · 66 games
NecrophosYumeyume
Necrophos
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
52% · 510 games53% · 163 games
Primal BeastIce Coke
Primal Beast
Tidehunter
Tidehunter生死
56% · 243 games49% · 413 games
Storm SpiritQ7
Storm Spirit
Techies
TechiesCatYou
49% · 91 game47% · 292 games
Phoenix谢乐zzz张泽中
Phoenix
Axe
AxeLOyd
51% · 281 game44% · 448 games
Tusksheep
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 68%
Series resultCloud Rising 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3