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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
CatYou · 12 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
生死 · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 8 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
CatYou · 8 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
RedPanda · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 26 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
Niku · 19 games
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 15 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
Niku · 13 games
62%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Zayac · 13 games
85%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
pma · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 11 games
45%
Underlord
Underlord
pma · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
560 picks · 283 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
502 picks · 507 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
378 picks · 1033 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
336 picks · 386 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 162 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
329 picks · 552 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
328 picks · 151 bans
54%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
314 picks · 506 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 27%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:10
Roar Gaming 62%Natus Vincere Junior 38%
The model gave 62% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
49% · 107 games42% · 171 game
Svenrubikon155
Sven
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlu
49% · 284 games56% · 136 games
Lycankrol9ash
Lycan
Pangolier
Pangolier生死
47% · 386 games47% · 424 games
Tinygbc
Tiny
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCatYou
57% · 21 gamelittle data
Arc WardenGothic-
Arc Warden
Disruptor
DisruptorRedPanda
53% · 169 games53% · 236 games
Shadow DemonHyugadoto
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct40:7
Roar Gaming 64%Natus Vincere Junior 36%
The model gave 64% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 24:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerUlu
53% · 139 games56% · 167 games
Ursarubikon155
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
52% · 321 game49% · 224 games
Marskrol9ash
Mars
Pangolier
Pangolier生死
47% · 283 games50% · 113 games
Void Spiritgbc
Void Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorRedPanda
48% · 230 games48% · 210 games
HoodwinkGothic-
Hoodwink
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCatYou
42% · 18 games50% · 277 games
JakiroHyugadoto
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 73%
Series resultRoar Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2