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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 11 games
27%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LOyd · 10 games
30%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 10 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 10 games
30%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 9 games
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ukiyo · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
43%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 22 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 14 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
614 picks · 572 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 415 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 410 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
457 picks · 522 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
450 picks · 228 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 250 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1034 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 898 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Roar Gaming 30%Nemiga Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Roar Gaming 30%Nemiga Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 70%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2