DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tearlamentswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Roar Gaming
Disruptor
RedPanda · 4 games
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 3 games
Earthshakeroften banned
生死 · 3 games
Snapfire
CatYou · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
生死 · 2 games
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 2 games
Marcioften banned
生死 · 2 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 2 games
Tearlaments
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 7 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 6 games
Kunkkasignature
Echo · 6 games
Ringmaster
7e · 6 games
Tinysignature
Echo · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
305 picks · 762 bans
Disruptor
295 picks · 275 bans
Shadow Shaman
269 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
264 picks · 290 bans
Dawnbreaker
262 picks · 712 bans
Tusk
257 picks · 245 bans
Marci
255 picks · 725 bans
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 593 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Tearlaments
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:23
Roar Gaming 42%Tearlaments 58%
The model gave 58% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonUlu
Terrorbladepoyoyo
Dark Seer生死
Void SpiritEcho
PuckButterflyEffect
MarsSrf
SnapfireCatYou
Naga Sirenzzq
UndyingRedPanda
Grimstroke7e
Game 2prediction correct16:35
Roar Gaming 44%Tearlaments 56%
The model gave 56% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetUlu
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
Sand KingEcho
Mars生死
PangolierSrf
RingmasterCatYou
Warlockzzq
BaneRedPanda
Hoodwink7e
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 64%
Series resultTearlaments 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2