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ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yakult Brothers.Tearlamentsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
RedPanda · 17 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RedPanda · 13 games
31%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 13 games
31%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CatYou · 12 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 11 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 11 games
55%

Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Echo · 6 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
TK · 6 games
83%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
niu · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
niu · 4 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
zzq · 4 games
75%
Axe
Axeoften banned
niu · 3 games
67%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
lou · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
zzq · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
580 picks · 924 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 412 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 662 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 636 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
424 picks · 916 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 635 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 521 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
365 picks · 226 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:28
Roar Gaming 40%Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments 60%
The model gave 60% on Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingukiyo
53% · 150 games50% · 216 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Puck
PuckButterflyEffect
49% · 342 games48% · 265 games
Marsniu
Mars
Timbersaw
Timbersaw生死
51% · 207 games51% · 128 games
Primal BeastEcho
Primal Beast
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCatYou
54% · 213 games42% · 50 games
Faceless VoidTK
Faceless Void
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLOyd
65% · 39 games42% · 292 games
Warlockzzq
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed29:18
Roar Gaming 43%Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments 57%
The model gave 57% on Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingukiyo
58% · 194 games39% · 59 games
Weaverlou
Weaver
Razor
RazorButterflyEffect
51% · 56 games44% · 198 games
Marsniu
Mars
Slardar
Slardar生死
51% · 270 games51% · 244 games
Ember SpiritEcho
Ember Spirit
Ringmaster
RingmasterCatYou
54% · 350 games42% · 258 games
Warlockzzq
Warlock
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLOyd
62% · 57 games46% · 168 games
DisruptorTK
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed28:19
Roar Gaming 41%Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments 59%
The model gave 59% on Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 43:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunaukiyo
44% · 53 games50% · 92 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Razor
Razor生死
52% · 37 games50% · 92 games
Slardarniu
Slardar
Kunkka
KunkkaButterflyEffect
46% · 76 games29% · 3 games
Earth SpiritEcho
Earth Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLOyd
65% · 33 games55% · 117 games
DisruptorTK
Disruptor
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCatYou
46% · 138 games46% · 33 games
Weaverzzq
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers.Tearlaments · 66%
Series resultRoar Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3