IESF World Championship 2021. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Россияwin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Кыргызстанloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Россия
No games played over 6 months.
Кыргызстан
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
365 picks · 178 bans
Hoodwink
325 picks · 119 bans
Lina
274 picks · 505 bans
Mars
267 picks · 433 bans
Pangolier
253 picks · 348 bans
Luna
251 picks · 340 bans
Nyx Assassin
238 picks · 505 bans
Terrorblade
231 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Россия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Россия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:21
Россия 53%Кыргызстан 47%
The model gave 53% on Россия — the game was taken by Россия in 29:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteРоссия · 53%
Series resultРоссия 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1