Star Series #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rostikfacekid Clubwin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Daxak Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rostikfacekid Club
No games played over 6 months.
Daxak Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
577 picks · 355 bans
Phoenix
483 picks · 576 bans
Rubick
468 picks · 248 bans
Tiny
439 picks · 380 bans
Pangolier
392 picks · 544 bans
Puck
333 picks · 893 bans
Beastmaster
324 picks · 827 bans
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 459 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Rostikfacekid Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Daxak Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Rostikfacekid Club 37%Daxak Team 63%
The model gave 63% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Rostikfacekid Club.
Game 2prediction missed
Rostikfacekid Club 37%Daxak Team 63%
The model gave 63% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Rostikfacekid Club.
Model check result
Model favoriteDaxak Team · 63%
Series resultRostikfacekid Club 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2