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WINLINE Star Series #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rostikfacekid Clubloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Stariy_Bog Clubwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rostikfacekid Club

Anti-Mage
Anti-Mage
Koma` · 3 games
100%
Dazzle
Dazzle
by_Owl · 3 games
100%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
Koma` · 2 games
100%
Oracle
Oracle
by_Owl · 2 games
100%
Pudge
Pudge
blindzone · 2 games
100%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rostikfacekid · 2 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
avice · 2 games
100%
Windranger
Windranger
rostikfacekid · 2 games
100%

Stariy_Bog Club

Axe
Axeoften banned
Antares · 2 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
D_Mini · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stariy bog · 2 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
D_Mini · 2 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Satanic · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Antares · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Antares · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stariy bog · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
462 picks · 283 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 452 bans
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
303 picks · 131 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
303 picks · 124 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 288 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
277 picks · 243 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 412 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
269 picks · 388 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% Rostikfacekid Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Stariy_Bog Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:21
Rostikfacekid Club 47%Stariy_Bog Club 53%
The model gave 53% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by Rostikfacekid Club in 39:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linaavice
64% · 44 gameslittle data
Phantom AssassinSatanic
Phantom Assassin
Weaver
WeaverKoma`
35% · 51 game54% · 95 games
Void SpiritAntares
Void Spirit
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerblindzone
50% · 66 games58% · 70 games
ViperStariy bog
Viper
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrostikfacekid
42% · 120 games51% · 135 games
WindrangerD_Mini
Windranger
Oracle
Oracleby_Owl
43% · 19 games
Game 2prediction correct23:53
Rostikfacekid Club 46%Stariy_Bog Club 54%
The model gave 54% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by Stariy_Bog Club in 40:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherKoma`
55% · 31 game50% · 97 games
Keeper of the LightAntares
Keeper of the Light
Viper
Viperavice
53% · 112 games50% · 63 games
ClinkzSatanic
Clinkz
Kunkka
Kunkkablindzone
47% · 52 games54% · 42 games
Night StalkerStariy bog
Night Stalker
Lion
Lionrostikfacekid
52% · 140 games50% · 301 game
HoodwinkD_Mini
Hoodwink
Warlock
Warlockby_Owl
43% · 168 games
Game 3prediction correct18:42
Rostikfacekid Club 48%Stariy_Bog Club 52%
The model gave 52% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by Stariy_Bog Club in 30:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkKoma`
48% · 38 games53% · 104 games
Shadow FiendSatanic
Shadow Fiend
Bristleback
Bristlebackblindzone
47% · 159 games46% · 53 games
TechiesAntares
Techies
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiavice
46% · 36 games51% · 187 games
PuckStariy bog
Puck
Dazzle
Dazzleby_Owl
50% · 95 games48% · 80 games
RubickD_Mini
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinrostikfacekid
56% · 96 games
Model check result
Model favoriteStariy_Bog Club · 55%
Series resultStariy_Bog Club 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3