DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Rottweilas LATAMwin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCatChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rottweilas LATAM
Nyx Assassin
Genek · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Genek · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
Kez
DaaD- · 1 game
CatChamp
Shadow Demonoften banned
waveformn · 2 games
Clinkzoften banned
K1 · 1 game
Dark Willow
waveformn · 1 game
Hoodwink
waveformn · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Gunnar · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
K1 · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Gunnar · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
563 picks · 736 bans
Tusk
509 picks · 356 bans
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 652 bans
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 552 bans
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 625 bans
Snapfire
377 picks · 126 bans
Hoodwink
372 picks · 180 bans
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% CatChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% CatChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:14
Rottweilas LATAM 43%CatChamp 57%
The model gave 57% on CatChamp — the game was taken by Rottweilas LATAM in 27:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendDaaD-
GyrocopterK1
BristlebackAdrx
UnderlordITALIANO GANGSTA
MuertaGenek
Void SpiritGunnar
54% · 164 games
Ringmasterwaveformn
45% · 189 games
WarlockDuBu
Game 2prediction missed30:8
Rottweilas LATAM 42%CatChamp 58%
The model gave 58% on CatChamp — the game was taken by Rottweilas LATAM in 26:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezDaaD-
PuckGunnar
SlardarAdrx
Shadow FiendK1
WindrangerGenek
Centaur WarrunnerITALIANO GANGSTA
50% · 179 games
Tuskwaveformn
60% · 44 games
DazzleDuBu
Model check result
Model favoriteCatChamp · 66%
Series resultRottweilas LATAM 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2