ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Rottweilas LATAMloss 2:3series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:3
GamerLegionwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rottweilas LATAM
Shadow Fiendoften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
Muerta
Genek · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Genek · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Kez
DaaD- · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Nyx Assassin
Genek · 2 games
GamerLegion
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 12 games
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 10 games
Batridersignature
Speeed · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Fayde · 8 games
Snapfiresignature
Bignum · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
536 picks · 791 bans
Tusk
499 picks · 349 bans
Dragon Knight
462 picks · 638 bans
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 561 bans
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 711 bans
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 565 bans
Mars
342 picks · 464 bans
Slardar
323 picks · 903 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% GamerLegion
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total69% GamerLegion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:37
Rottweilas LATAM 41%GamerLegion 59%
The model gave 59% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by Rottweilas LATAM in 1:09:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzCostabile
Dragon KnightRCY
UnderlordAdrx
UrsaYamSun
MuertaGenek
LeshracFayde
Treant ProtectorYadomi
Shadow DemonBignum
44% · 36 games
Skywrath MageSpeeed
Game 2prediction missed33:10
Rottweilas LATAM 39%GamerLegion 61%
The model gave 61% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by Rottweilas LATAM in 36:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorCostabile
LeshracRCY
BeastmasterAdrx
AbaddonYamSun
MuertaGenek
Dark SeerFayde
Treant ProtectorYadomi
TinyBignum
43% · 55 games
TinkerSpeeed
Game 3prediction correct4:28
Rottweilas LATAM 38%GamerLegion 62%
The model gave 62% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 34:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendCostabile
Templar AssassinYamSun
TimbersawAdrx
PuckRCY
Dark WillowGenek
BrewmasterFayde
TuskYadomi
RingmasterBignum
59% · 34 games
Treant ProtectorSpeeed
Game 4prediction correct3:27
Rottweilas LATAM 41%GamerLegion 59%
The model gave 59% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 27:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinCostabile
Dragon KnightYamSun
BrewmasterAdrx
Queen of PainRCY
WarlockYadomi
Night StalkerFayde
ClockwerkGenek
ChenSpeeed
51% · 174 games
RingmasterBignum
Game 5prediction correct8:19
Rottweilas LATAM 39%GamerLegion 61%
The model gave 61% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorCostabile
Dragon KnightYamSun
DawnbreakerAdrx
PuckRCY
RingmasterGenek
UnderlordFayde
ClockwerkYadomi
ChenSpeeed
65% · 9 games
Treant ProtectorBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 69%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5