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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.

Aster.Aries

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
TK · 7 games
86%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 7 games
71%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ulu · 6 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
生死 · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
TK · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 4 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xwy · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 449 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
493 picks · 693 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
463 picks · 287 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 530 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
406 picks · 554 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 645 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 616 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
361 picks · 315 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 75%
Hero pool strength56% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:13
Royal Never Give Up 57%Aster.Aries 43%
The model gave 57% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 34:35.
Game 2prediction missed27:16
Royal Never Give Up 57%Aster.Aries 43%
The model gave 57% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 33:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 57%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2