Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CDEC Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
376 picks · 790 bans
Void Spirit
348 picks · 471 bans
Mars
299 picks · 524 bans
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 227 bans
Death Prophet
266 picks · 421 bans
Rubick
247 picks · 146 bans
Keeper of the Light
234 picks · 489 bans
Wraith King
229 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 72%
Hero pool strength50% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:17
Royal Never Give Up 40%CDEC Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 34:05.
Game 2prediction correct49:21
Royal Never Give Up 40%CDEC Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 1:10:45.
Game 3prediction correct28:13
Royal Never Give Up 40%CDEC Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 36:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 60%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3