Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
EHOME
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 18 games
Bane
zzq · 15 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 15 games
Rubick
pLAnet · 12 games
Sand Kingsignature
zeal · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Echo · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
shiro · 8 games
Tidehuntersignature
zeal · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
499 picks · 446 bans
Mars
489 picks · 689 bans
Bane
462 picks · 285 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 522 bans
Sand King
411 picks · 563 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 608 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% EHOME
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total53% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:6
Royal Never Give Up 53%EHOME 47%
The model gave 53% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by EHOME in 29:23.
Game 2prediction missed15:27
Royal Never Give Up 53%EHOME 47%
The model gave 53% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by EHOME in 29:08.
Game 3prediction missed25:13
Royal Never Give Up 53%EHOME 47%
The model gave 53% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by EHOME in 32:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 53%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3