Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
54 picks · 92 bans
Puck
42 picks · 106 bans
Earth Spirit
39 picks · 30 bans
Void Spirit
37 picks · 59 bans
Phoenix
33 picks · 37 bans
Monkey King
29 picks · 61 bans
Mirana
28 picks · 33 bans
Undying
28 picks · 55 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:20
Royal Never Give Up 52%Invictus Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 59:31.
Game 2prediction missed14:23
Royal Never Give Up 52%Invictus Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 33:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 52%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2