Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phoenix Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Phoenix Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Void Spirit
12 picks · 14 bans
Earth Spirit
11 picks · 8 bans
Mars
11 picks · 25 bans
Crystal Maiden
10 picks · 0 bans
Puck
10 picks · 24 bans
Monkey King
8 picks · 13 bans
Tiny
8 picks · 6 bans
Wraith King
8 picks · 7 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:26
Royal Never Give Up 50%Phoenix Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 37:51.
Game 2prediction missed28:31
Royal Never Give Up 50%Phoenix Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 48:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 50%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2