The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Soniqsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 389 bans
Marci
440 picks · 675 bans
Death Prophet
299 picks · 462 bans
Puck
286 picks · 690 bans
Dawnbreaker
276 picks · 398 bans
Undying
267 picks · 476 bans
Chen
248 picks · 510 bans
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 333 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 30%
Hero pool strength50% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:20
Royal Never Give Up 71%Soniqs 29%
The model gave 71% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Soniqs in 44:46.
Game 2prediction missed24:7
Royal Never Give Up 71%Soniqs 29%
The model gave 71% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Soniqs in 23:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 71%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2