PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 19 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Razorsignature
zai · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Boxi · 12 games
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
694 picks · 499 bans
Puck
495 picks · 985 bans
Dawnbreaker
404 picks · 514 bans
Snapfire
386 picks · 194 bans
Marci
368 picks · 680 bans
Mars
322 picks · 539 bans
Winter Wyvern
321 picks · 297 bans
Monkey King
302 picks · 631 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:33
Royal Never Give Up 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:03:31.
Game 2prediction missed42:52
Royal Never Give Up 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2