Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Grimstroke
Victoria · 18 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Irving · 11 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 10 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Xm · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Irving · 9 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 9 games
Snapfire
Victoria · 9 games
Weaveroften banned
Yds · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 440 bans
Mars
481 picks · 700 bans
Bane
451 picks · 296 bans
Dragon Knight
439 picks · 536 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 611 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 608 bans
Sand King
366 picks · 528 bans
Keeper of the Light
346 picks · 768 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total51% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:8
Royal Never Give Up 51%Vici Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 24:20.
Game 2prediction correct
Royal Never Give Up 51%Vici Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 51%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2