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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.

Xtreme Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 10 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
86%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
43%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Dy · 6 games
83%
Bane
Bane
Dy · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
716 picks · 570 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
498 picks · 1025 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
497 picks · 657 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
485 picks · 809 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 427 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 162 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
328 picks · 395 bans
47%
Razor
Razor
301 picks · 580 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total57% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:23
Royal Never Give Up 43%Xtreme Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 29:54.
Game 2prediction correct31:15
Royal Never Give Up 43%Xtreme Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:36.
Game 3prediction correct27:24
Royal Never Give Up 43%Xtreme Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 57%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3