BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
RSGwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
457 picks · 281 bans
Mars
449 picks · 611 bans
Tiny
410 picks · 478 bans
Sand King
372 picks · 495 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 780 bans
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 516 bans
Storm Spirit
322 picks · 494 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 468 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% RSG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% RSG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:49
RSG 59%Lilgun 41%
The model gave 59% on RSG — the game was taken by Lilgun in 45:21.
Game 2prediction missed28:36
RSG 59%Lilgun 41%
The model gave 59% on RSG — the game was taken by Lilgun in 37:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteRSG · 59%
Series resultRSG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2