The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
RSGwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 9 games
Snapfire
Se · 9 games
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 8 games
Tiny
Karma丶 · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Enryu · 6 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
ChuaN · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Enryu · 6 games
Warlock
Se · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
712 picks · 562 bans
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 658 bans
Marci
497 picks · 793 bans
Puck
486 picks · 1024 bans
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 425 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
324 picks · 157 bans
Razor
301 picks · 574 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 32%
Hero pool strength57% RSG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% RSG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:36
RSG 64%Neon Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on RSG — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 37:50.
Game 2prediction missed61:32
RSG 64%Neon Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on RSG — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 53:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteRSG · 64%
Series resultRSG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2