ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
RSGloss 1:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
T1win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
582 picks · 449 bans
Puck
420 picks · 900 bans
Mars
366 picks · 577 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 463 bans
Snapfire
349 picks · 180 bans
Dawnbreaker
322 picks · 373 bans
Bane
318 picks · 197 bans
Ember Spirit
294 picks · 572 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 35%
Hero pool strength50% RSG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:0
RSG 31%T1 69%
The model gave 69% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 55:10.
Game 2prediction correct16:39
RSG 31%T1 69%
The model gave 69% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 18:54.
Game 3prediction correct48:28
RSG 31%T1 69%
The model gave 69% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 42:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 69%
Series resultT1 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3