ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
RSGloss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Banesignature
Hyde · 9 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 9 games
Marssignature
kpii · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 7 games
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 7 games
Medusasignature
23savage · 7 games
Snapfiresignature
Hyde · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
579 picks · 447 bans
Puck
418 picks · 897 bans
Mars
363 picks · 575 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 462 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 180 bans
Dawnbreaker
319 picks · 371 bans
Bane
317 picks · 197 bans
Ember Spirit
294 picks · 567 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 69%
Hero pool strength62% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:36
RSG 34%Talon Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:42.
Game 2prediction correct41:54
RSG 34%Talon Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:03.
Game 3prediction correct49:32
RSG 34%Talon Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 66%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3