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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
70%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 37 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 35 games
66%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 35 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 34 games
76%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 32 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 27 games
74%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 25 games
68%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 21 game
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 14 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
452 picks · 231 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
451 picks · 431 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 945 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 372 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
299 picks · 149 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 227 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
287 picks · 672 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
286 picks · 659 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total54% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:19
Runa Team 54%1w Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciAlberkaaa
56% · 136 games43% · 202 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Terrorblade
Terrorbladenesfeer
52% · 190 games47% · 248 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
47% · 250 games53% · 163 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
53% · 257 games46% · 182 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
51% · 187 games53% · 225 games
Disruptorkasane
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed36:38
Runa Team 54%1w Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 53:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magenesfeer
56% · 50 games47% · 160 games
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
Earthshakernicky`cool
55% · 238 games51% · 252 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Slardar
SlardarAlberkaaa
49% · 102 games51% · 162 games
DawnbreakerSSS
Dawnbreaker
Warlock
WarlockHduo
53% · 268 games51% · 173 games
Disruptorkasane
Disruptor
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
46% · 225 games43% · 136 games
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Game 3prediction missed18:40
Runa Team 53%1w Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordnesfeer
48% · 92 games35% · 67 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Zeus
Zeusnicky`cool
37% · 37 games50% · 135 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Marci
MarciAlberkaaa
54% · 151 game53% · 119 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Warlock
WarlockHduo
50% · 281 game53% · 349 games
Tinyswedenstrong
Tiny
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
56% · 307 games52% · 198 games
Disruptorkasane
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 54%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3