FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
20Twiceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 32 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 29 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 25 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 23 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 22 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 22 games
20Twice
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
Bristleback
Dominic · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 702 bans
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
Disruptor
257 picks · 235 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 656 bans
Tusk
248 picks · 250 bans
Marci
244 picks · 622 bans
Pugna
244 picks · 253 bans
Dark Willow
242 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:12
Runa Team 74%20Twice 26%
The model gave 74% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 28:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
Queen of PainW1sh-
Earthshakernicky`cool
MarspJonn
SlardarAlberkaaa
Shadow DemonArrOw
Snapfirequeezy
ClockwerkHduo
Game 2prediction correct30:12
Runa Team 74%20Twice 26%
The model gave 74% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 26:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingnesfeer
Storm SpiritW1sh-
Timbersawnicky`cool
MarspJonn
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Dark WillowArrOw
Batriderqueezy
ClockwerkHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 88%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2