CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 32 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 28 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 24 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 22 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 22 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 20 games
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
ariel · 32 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Tinysignature
Otaker · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
495 picks · 535 bans
Dark Willow
387 picks · 228 bans
Tusk
354 picks · 411 bans
Puck
331 picks · 878 bans
Batrider
327 picks · 928 bans
Pangolier
311 picks · 480 bans
Tiny
311 picks · 289 bans
Nature's Prophet
297 picks · 616 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% 4Pirates
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total51% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:37
Runa Team 46%4Pirates 54%
The model gave 54% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
Faceless VoidOtaker
Pucknicky`cool
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
Earthshakerмистер мораль
WarlockHtrd
Zeusariel
Tuskqueezy
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction correct23:42
Runa Team 49%4Pirates 51%
The model gave 51% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 39:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusanesfeer
SpectreOtaker
PudgeAlberkaaa
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Earthshakernicky`cool
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Snapfirequeezy
Zeusariel
DisruptorHtrd
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 51%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2