PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 34 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 34 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 33 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 32 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 31 game
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 31 game
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 25 games
4Pirates
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 26 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
407 picks · 367 bans
Snapfire
361 picks · 188 bans
Puck
348 picks · 883 bans
Pugna
307 picks · 354 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 245 bans
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 808 bans
Warlock
281 picks · 136 bans
Batrider
275 picks · 691 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Runa Team
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total74% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Runa Team 74%4Pirates 26%
The model gave 74% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Runa Team 74%4Pirates 26%
The model gave 74% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 74%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2