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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
eSpoiledwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 32 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 24 games
46%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 24 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 21 game
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 19 games
74%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
61%

eSpoiled

Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 13 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 12 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 11 games
45%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 10 games
60%
Sven
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
30%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
519 picks · 550 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
386 picks · 230 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 414 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 866 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 481 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
321 picks · 908 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
320 picks · 300 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
289 picks · 641 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Runa Team
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total82% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:30
Runa Team 71%eSpoiled 29%
The model gave 71% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 52:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
55% · 151 game41% · 86 games
Abaddonssnovv1
Abaddon
Monkey King
Monkey KingAlberkaaa
60% · 169 games42% · 73 games
AxemeLes
Axe
Sand King
Sand Kingnicky`cool
55% · 78 games50% · 205 games
Dark WillowWein
Dark Willow
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magequeezy
30% · 6 games52% · 121 game
Pugnaasdekor_r
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptorHtrd
45% · 81 game
Game 2prediction missed29:23
Runa Team 70%eSpoiled 30%
The model gave 70% on Runa Team — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 48:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svennesfeer
49% · 100 games59% · 165 games
Templar Assassinssnovv1
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painnicky`cool
44% · 135 games48% · 151 game
AbaddonmeLes
Abaddon
Monkey King
Monkey KingAlberkaaa
54% · 191 game54% · 337 games
Dark WillowWein
Dark Willow
Tusk
Tuskqueezy
47% · 308 games49% · 129 games
Silencerasdekor_r
Silencer
Oracle
OracleHtrd
44% · 48 games
Game 3prediction missed22:25
Runa Team 70%eSpoiled 30%
The model gave 70% on Runa Team — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonnesfeer
48% · 71 game49% · 112 games
Medusassnovv1
Medusa
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAlberkaaa
55% · 115 games53% · 53 games
UndyingmeLes
Undying
Sand King
Sand Kingnicky`cool
57% · 105 games48% · 108 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magequeezy
55% · 16 games46% · 85 games
SnapfireWein
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorHtrd
42% · 51 game
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 82%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3