European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 9 games
Windrangersignature
queezy · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
queezy · 6 games
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 6 games
Warlock
Mary_y · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mary_y · 4 games
Slarkoften banned
Shigetsu · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 3 games
Hydra
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 12 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
selfhate · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 8 games
Terrorbladesignature
selfhate · 8 games
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 8 games
Muerta
prblms · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
mellojul · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
467 picks · 465 bans
Tiny
406 picks · 567 bans
Ringmaster
329 picks · 151 bans
Phantom Assassin
283 picks · 580 bans
Terrorblade
278 picks · 519 bans
Bristleback
270 picks · 488 bans
Beastmaster
264 picks · 571 bans
Muerta
264 picks · 150 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:25
Runa Team 43%Hydra 57%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Runa Team in 52:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerShigetsu
Terrorbladeselfhate
Monkey Kingnicky`cool
Storm Spiritmellojul
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Dark SeerActor
RingmasterHduo
Windrangerqueezy
Game 2prediction missed42:10
Runa Team 44%Hydra 56%
The model gave 56% on Hydra — the game was taken by Runa Team in 40:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaShigetsu
Monkey Kingselfhate
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Ember Spiritmellojul
Night StalkerAlberkaaa
Dark SeerActor
RingmasterHduo
Windrangerqueezy
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 62%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2