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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 48 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 48 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 42 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 37 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
70%

HULIGANI

Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 26 games
46%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 21 game
62%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 19 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 18 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 18 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
Bb3px · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
725 picks · 346 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
599 picks · 633 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
506 picks · 258 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
423 picks · 1174 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
417 picks · 695 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
417 picks · 261 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
404 picks · 421 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
357 picks · 216 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total59% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:20
Runa Team 52%HULIGANI 48%
The model gave 52% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopternesfeer
52% · 203 games45% · 45 games
Broodmotherv1olent-
Broodmother
Batrider
Batridernicky`cool
47% · 238 games55% · 367 games
Puckerase
Puck
Night Stalker
Night StalkerAlberkaaa
53% · 104 games57% · 197 games
ChenRESPECT
Chen
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magequeezy
47% · 40 games49% · 233 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Tusk
TuskHduo
39% · 283 games57% · 26 games
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction missed11:26
Runa Team 53%HULIGANI 47%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 26:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopternesfeer
45% · 410 games53% · 171 game
Ursav1olent-
Ursa
Primal Beast
Primal Beastnicky`cool
47% · 213 games52% · 181 game
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
50% · 276 games50% · 368 games
Pangoliererase
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
47% · 235 games59% · 161 game
ChenRESPECT
Chen
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magequeezy
52% · 50 games48% · 303 games
Tuskslimeyao
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed7:29
Runa Team 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Runa Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 24:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svennesfeer
42% · 162 games50% · 270 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
45% · 218 games55% · 282 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painnicky`cool
40% · 289 games51% · 222 games
DoomBb3px
Doom
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
48% · 343 games54% · 292 games
SnapfireRESPECT
Snapfire
Chen
ChenHduo
58% · 168 games58% · 114 games
Nyx Assassinslimeyao
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 59%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3