CCT Season 2 Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Disruptoroften banned
Hduo · 56 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 51 game
Hoodwink
queezy · 46 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 45 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 39 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 38 games
HULIGANI
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 30 games
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 25 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 24 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 23 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 22 games
Warlock
RESPECT · 22 games
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
774 picks · 361 bans
Hoodwink
577 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
564 picks · 568 bans
Jakiro
514 picks · 358 bans
Dragon Knight
498 picks · 605 bans
Tusk
480 picks · 277 bans
Mars
468 picks · 748 bans
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total53% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:12
Runa Team 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
Terrorbladev1olent-
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
EnigmaBb3px
MarciAlberkaaa
Pangoliererase
WarlockHduo
Shadow DemonRESPECT
Dark Willowqueezy
Tuskslimeyao
Game 2prediction missed20:24
Runa Team 50%HULIGANI 50%
The model gave 50% on Runa Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Juggernautv1olent-
PangolierAlberkaaa
Puckerase
Slardarnicky`cool
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
ChenHduo
JakiroRESPECT
Hoodwinkqueezy
Tuskslimeyao
Game 3prediction correct22:31
Runa Team 47%HULIGANI 53%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 47:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordnesfeer
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
AbaddonBb3px
DoomAlberkaaa
Slardarerase
Hoodwinkqueezy
Tuskslimeyao
WarlockHduo
BaneRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 53%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3