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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 50 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 48 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 42 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 37 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
70%

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 20 games
35%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 15 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 14 games
21%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
46%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 12 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 11 games
18%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
728 picks · 348 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
601 picks · 634 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
511 picks · 262 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
427 picks · 1175 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
422 picks · 267 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
418 picks · 692 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
405 picks · 433 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
361 picks · 222 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 38%
Hero pool strength59% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total86% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:11
Runa Team 74%Level UP 26%
The model gave 74% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 28:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
43% · 161 game55% · 80 games
JuggernautNikobaby
Juggernaut
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetnicky`cool
53% · 206 games45% · 402 games
PuckMaTson
Puck
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
44% · 196 games48% · 288 games
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
55% · 239 games61% · 211 games
Chenkur0patbI4
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
47% · 254 games47% · 75 games
Skywrath MageGilgir
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct25:11
Runa Team 74%Level UP 26%
The model gave 74% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 28:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawAlberkaaa
57% · 214 games46% · 71 game
WeaverNikobaby
Weaver
Abaddon
Abaddonnesfeer
47% · 319 games44% · 386 games
PangolierMaTson
Pangolier
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
50% · 341 game50% · 225 games
DoompJonn
Doom
Chen
ChenHduo
63% · 209 games47% · 406 games
Batriderkur0patbI4
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonqueezy
53% · 273 games44% · 268 games
SnapfireGilgir
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 86%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2