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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 30 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 17 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 16 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
53%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Hduo · 15 games
67%

MOUZ

Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 10 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
56%
Io
Iooften banned
Seleri · 8 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 8 games
38%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
505 picks · 540 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 427 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 368 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
321 picks · 701 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
301 picks · 550 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
300 picks · 195 bans
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
297 picks · 171 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 35%
Hero pool strength61% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:40
Runa Team 54%MOUZ 46%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by MOUZ in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkShigetsu
52% · 92 games51% · 151 game
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Axe
AxeAlberkaaa
51% · 96 games51% · 75 games
Abaddon423
Abaddon
Slardar
Slardarnicky`cool
44% · 97 games51% · 110 games
Dark SeerBOOM
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
47% · 299 games53% · 137 games
Nature's ProphetSeleri
Nature's Prophet
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHduo
56% · 158 games44% · 269 games
TuskThiolicor
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed21:37
Runa Team 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonShigetsu
48% · 87 games50% · 107 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
61% · 45 games47% · 107 games
Marci423
Marci
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
46% · 93 games44% · 135 games
Queen of PainSupream^
Queen of Pain
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
49% · 180 games53% · 111 games
RubickThiolicor
Rubick
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHduo
57% · 83 games49% · 28 games
IoSeleri
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 52%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2