BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 36 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 32 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 31 game
Nigma Galaxy
Tusk
GH · 37 games
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
Elder Titan
GH · 23 games
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
Iooften banned
GH · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
477 picks · 248 bans
Disruptor
465 picks · 454 bans
Puck
358 picks · 960 bans
Pugna
325 picks · 371 bans
Warlock
306 picks · 151 bans
Earthshaker
291 picks · 474 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 223 bans
Batrider
289 picks · 634 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:14
Runa Team 28%Nigma Galaxy 72%
The model gave 72% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Runa Team in 37:28.
Game 2prediction correct
Runa Team 28%Nigma Galaxy 72%
The model gave 72% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy.
Game 3prediction correct22:31
Runa Team 41%Nigma Galaxy 59%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 47:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealernesfeer
Troll WarlordGhost
Tinynicky`cool
MuertaSumaiL
SlardarAlberkaaa
EarthshakerNo!ob
Batriderqueezy
Shadow DemonOmaR
SilencerHduo
PugnaTobi
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 72%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3