European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
No games played over 6 months.
Team Lynx
Nature's Prophetoften banned
lightless · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
lightless · 1 game
Slardar
StoneBank · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
lightless · 1 game
Wraith King
StoneBank · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
442 picks · 676 bans
Jakiro
398 picks · 397 bans
Phantom Assassin
353 picks · 721 bans
Dragon Knight
322 picks · 537 bans
Bristleback
321 picks · 614 bans
Muerta
321 picks · 191 bans
Beastmaster
297 picks · 576 bans
Warlock
293 picks · 271 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:23
Runa Team 51%Team Lynx 49%
The model gave 51% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 44:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenShigetsu
MorphlingDarkLord^
BristlebackAlberkaaa
MarsStoneBank
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Tuskqueezy
RingmasterMary_y
Game 2prediction missed19:29
Runa Team 51%Team Lynx 49%
The model gave 51% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 50:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetShigetsu
MedusaDarkLord^
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
TidehunterStoneBank
Monkey Kingnicky`cool
Tinyqueezy
Elder TitanMary_y
Game 3prediction missed44:35
Runa Team 49%Team Lynx 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Runa Team in 48:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaAlberkaaa
Phantom AssassinDarkLord^
SvenShigetsu
BristlebackStoneBank
Tinynicky`cool
Keeper of the Lightqueezy
RingmasterMary_y
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 51%
Series resultRuna Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3