CCT Season 2 Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TPTeam Publicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 55 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 50 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 45 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 42 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 39 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 38 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
Team Public
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 6 games
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 6 games
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Clockwerk
Puppey · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Dazzleoften banned
Puppey · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
785 picks · 361 bans
Disruptor
579 picks · 583 bans
Hoodwink
577 picks · 299 bans
Dragon Knight
491 picks · 571 bans
Jakiro
490 picks · 328 bans
Tusk
479 picks · 267 bans
Mars
468 picks · 753 bans
Puck
437 picks · 1109 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:31
Runa Team 67%Team Public 33%
The model gave 67% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 50:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Lycanmangekyou
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
Pangolierxn丶e
DoomAlberkaaa
Troll WarlordShigetsu
Batriderqueezy
ChenPuppey
WarlockHduo
Hoodwinkmrls
Game 2prediction missed21:31
Runa Team 66%Team Public 34%
The model gave 66% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Team Public in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
WeaverShigetsu
Troll Warlordnesfeer
Puckxn丶e
MarsAlberkaaa
Beastmastermangekyou
WarlockHduo
Skywrath Magemrls
Hoodwinkqueezy
TuskPuppey
Game 3prediction missed21:40
Runa Team 65%Team Public 35%
The model gave 65% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Team Public in 51:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingnesfeer
WeaverShigetsu
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Lycanmangekyou
AxeAlberkaaa
ChenPuppey
Hoodwinkqueezy
Ember Spiritxn丶e
DisruptorHduo
Spirit Breakermrls
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 77%
Series resultTeam Public 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3