CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO5
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 3:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Tealoss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 50 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 45 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 42 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 37 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 34 games
Warlocksignature
Hduo · 33 games
Team Tea
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 11 games
Pugnaoften banned
SoNNeikO · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Shigetsu · 8 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 8 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
570 picks · 288 bans
Disruptor
508 picks · 514 bans
Puck
380 picks · 1048 bans
Pugna
340 picks · 388 bans
Hoodwink
337 picks · 171 bans
Warlock
335 picks · 156 bans
Mars
334 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
323 picks · 238 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:43
Runa Team 61%Team Tea 39%
The model gave 61% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Team Tea in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinnesfeer
UrsaShigetsu
Dragon Knightnicky`cool
Queen of PainWorick
MarciAlberkaaa
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
Batriderqueezy
HoodwinkdEsire
WarlockHduo
PugnaSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction correct27:7
Runa Team 60%Team Tea 40%
The model gave 60% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 27:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinnesfeer
AbaddonShigetsu
Pangoliernicky`cool
BeastmasterWorick
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
ChenHduo
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Dark Willowqueezy
SnapfiredEsire
Game 3prediction correct28:19
Runa Team 62%Team Tea 38%
The model gave 62% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristlebacknesfeer
Dragon KnightShigetsu
Pucknicky`cool
Void SpiritWorick
SlardarAlberkaaa
BeastmasterCloud
WarlockHduo
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Snapfirequeezy
TuskdEsire
Game 4prediction correct36:16
Runa Team 61%Team Tea 39%
The model gave 61% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 44:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealernesfeer
WeaverShigetsu
MarciAlberkaaa
Queen of PainWorick
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
ChenHduo
TinydEsire
Snapfirequeezy
WarlockSoNNeikO
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 67%
Series resultRuna Team 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4