CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TNL DOTAloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 30 games
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 25 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 12 games
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
TNL DOTA
Dark Willow
Fernans · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
yowaai · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Norma · 3 games
Shadow Fiend
dualrazee · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
flacko · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
Norma · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
559 picks · 627 bans
Ringmaster
481 picks · 243 bans
Jakiro
459 picks · 428 bans
Terrorblade
394 picks · 833 bans
Storm Spirit
367 picks · 554 bans
Tusk
365 picks · 322 bans
Ancient Apparition
359 picks · 827 bans
Shadow Shaman
358 picks · 419 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:42
Runa Team 56%TNL DOTA 44%
The model gave 56% on Runa Team — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 41:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeShigetsu
Kunkkadualrazee
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Doomyowaai
Vengeful SpiritAlberkaaa
Dark SeerNorma
Windrangerqueezy
BatriderFernans
UndyingHduo
Disruptorflacko
Game 2prediction correct39:18
Runa Team 57%TNL DOTA 43%
The model gave 57% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenShigetsu
Doomyowaai
Timbersawnicky`cool
Leshracdualrazee
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
KunkkaNorma
Night Stalkerqueezy
Shadow DemonFernans
DisruptorHduo
Undyingflacko
Game 3prediction correct32:18
Runa Team 57%TNL DOTA 43%
The model gave 57% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Lifestealeryowaai
Tinynicky`cool
Puckdualrazee
DoomAlberkaaa
BeastmasterNorma
Night Stalkerqueezy
Phoenixflacko
WarlockHduo
TuskFernans
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 60%
Series resultRuna Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3