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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNL DOTAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 28 games
64%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 17 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 14 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Hduo · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 14 games
64%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 8 games
13%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 6 games
17%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Norma · 5 games
20%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
flacko · 5 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 543 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
442 picks · 489 bans
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
440 picks · 231 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
396 picks · 296 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 358 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
372 picks · 812 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
358 picks · 518 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 529 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total77% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:36
Runa Team 64%TNL DOTA 36%
The model gave 64% on Runa Team — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShigetsu
47% · 186 games52% · 164 games
Templar Assassinyowaai
Templar Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
45% · 212 games50% · 366 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
54% · 307 games62% · 80 games
Night StalkerNorma
Night Stalker
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
46% · 295 games51% · 364 games
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
42% · 94 games52% · 120 games
Ringmasterflacko
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed38:62
Runa Team 67%TNL DOTA 33%
The model gave 67% on Runa Team — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 49:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainShigetsu
48% · 148 games46% · 98 games
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Shadow Fiend
Enigma
EnigmaAlberkaaa
55% · 156 games43% · 104 games
Kunkkayowaai
Kunkka
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
59% · 107 games38% · 255 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonqueezy
59% · 252 games59% · 38 games
Baneflacko
Bane
Axe
AxeHduo
59% · 70 games41% · 238 games
TuskFernans
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 77%
Series resultTNL DOTA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2