CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 17 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 17 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 15 games
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 17 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 11 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
578 picks · 582 bans
Tiny
407 picks · 407 bans
Tusk
374 picks · 396 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 514 bans
Dark Willow
338 picks · 205 bans
Terrorblade
331 picks · 702 bans
Nature's Prophet
322 picks · 612 bans
Puck
319 picks · 786 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 51%
Hero pool strength56% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:18
Runa Team 54%Yellow Submarine 46%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 27:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendShigetsu
Medusabottega
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
Storm SpiritMirele
Void Spiritnicky`cool
BeastmasterInfernal
Windrangerqueezy
Marcimrls
DazzleHduo
Ancient ApparitionXakoda
Game 2prediction missed12:21
Runa Team 55%Yellow Submarine 45%
The model gave 55% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerShigetsu
BeastmasterInfernal
Leshracnicky`cool
PuckMirele
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
Monkey Kingbottega
Dark Willowqueezy
EnchantressXakoda
UndyingHduo
Tuskmrls
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 59%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2