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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 18 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
61%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
39%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 23 games
39%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 22 games
55%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 21 game
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
583 picks · 587 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 397 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 403 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 505 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
345 picks · 207 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 702 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
318 picks · 611 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 796 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total55% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:43
Runa Team 56%Zero Tenacity 44%
The model gave 56% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 39:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonShigetsu
47% · 174 games51% · 206 games
TerrorbladeNande
Terrorblade
Sniper
Snipernicky`cool
57% · 99 games45% · 167 games
Ember SpiritMirage
Ember Spirit
Pudge
PudgeAlberkaaa
50% · 16 games55% · 52 games
UndyingNefrit
Undying
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
45% · 308 games50% · 267 games
Batrideryamich
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenHduo
55% · 132 games45% · 37 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct35:14
Runa Team 54%Zero Tenacity 46%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 23:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonShigetsu
47% · 178 games45% · 212 games
TerrorbladeNande
Terrorblade
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
49% · 153 games52% · 202 games
Monkey KingMirage
Monkey King
Leshrac
Leshracnicky`cool
45% · 112 games56% · 98 games
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
52% · 89 games51% · 232 games
Batrideryamich
Batrider
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetqueezy
48% · 253 games57% · 41 game
OracleSe
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct33:33
Runa Team 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkShigetsu
55% · 72 games52% · 124 games
Dark SeerNefrit
Dark Seer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
51% · 104 games54% · 209 games
Ember SpiritMirage
Ember Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackAlberkaaa
50% · 286 games50% · 16 games
Faceless VoidNande
Faceless Void
Marci
Marciqueezy
44% · 137 games44% · 141 game
WarlockSe
Warlock
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
51% · 109 games49% · 218 games
Batrideryamich
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 55%
Series resultRuna Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3