EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters Arisewin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KKWloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters Arise
Hoodwink
waveformn · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Ankou · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
ani-san · 2 games
Clinkzoften banned
yowaai · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
ani-san · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Ankou · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
yowaai · 1 game
KW
Clockwerkoften banned
monodrama · 4 games
Hoodwink
lupsione · 4 games
Kezoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Lina
Retsu · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Necrophosoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Witch Doctor
monodrama · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
495 picks · 355 bans
Rubick
381 picks · 228 bans
Clockwerk
344 picks · 640 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 343 bans
Windranger
314 picks · 228 bans
Bane
298 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
291 picks · 396 bans
Ember Spirit
287 picks · 421 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Rune Eaters Arise
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Rune Eaters Arise
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:37
Rune Eaters Arise 55%KW 45%
The model gave 55% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 44:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendyowaai
LunaRetsu
PuckEthereal
Techieslupsione
UnderlordAnkou
Marciwaveformn
Hoodwinkani-san
Game 2prediction correct42:51
Rune Eaters Arise 56%KW 44%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendyowaai
TinyRetsu
HuskarEthereal
Snapfirelupsione
EnigmaAnkou
Marciwaveformn
Baneani-san
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters Arise · 56%
Series resultRune Eaters Arise 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2