EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters Arisewin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
summer bearloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters Arise
Hoodwink
ani-san · 9 games
Largosignature
Ankou · 8 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
ani-san · 5 games
summer bear
Techies
Delight · 15 games
Tinyoften banned
kae · 9 games
Hoodwink
Delight · 8 games
Undyingsignature
monodrama · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
azimoff · 5 games
Muertaoften banned
zuyzyan · 5 games
Ogre Magi
monodrama · 5 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
zuyzyan · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
482 picks · 330 bans
Bane
343 picks · 457 bans
Clockwerk
332 picks · 508 bans
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 502 bans
Shadow Fiend
310 picks · 638 bans
Tiny
283 picks · 312 bans
Windranger
265 picks · 193 bans
Rubick
257 picks · 145 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Rune Eaters Arise
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Rune Eaters Arise
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:44
Rune Eaters Arise 53%summer bear 47%
The model gave 53% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by summer bear in 47:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealeryowaai
Nature's ProphetOtaker
Keeper of the LightEthereal
InvokerPanda
UndyingAnkou
UnderlordfortniteMan
Dark Willowwaveformn
TechiesDelight
Rubickani-san
Game 2prediction correct21:21
Rune Eaters Arise 51%summer bear 49%
The model gave 51% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 41:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidyowaai
WindrangerOtaker
SlarkEthereal
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
SlardarAnkou
Ember SpiritPanda
Dark Willowwaveformn
HoodwinkDelight
Baneani-san
Game 3prediction correct33:12
Rune Eaters Arise 56%summer bear 44%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 32:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidyowaai
LinaPanda
Dark SeerAnkou
TinyOtaker
Ember SpiritEthereal
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Dark Willowwaveformn
PhoenixDelight
Winter Wyvernani-san
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters Arise · 53%
Series resultRune Eaters Arise 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3