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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 50 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Htrd · 43 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 38 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 27 games
81%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 25 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Htrd · 24 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 23 games
52%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 20 games
35%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
40%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 20 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 19 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 17 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
566 picks · 731 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 360 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 657 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
451 picks · 550 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
389 picks · 131 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
381 picks · 181 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 620 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 540 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:39
Rune Eaters 36%Aurora Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 53:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
49% · 148 games50% · 302 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Tiny
TinyEthereal
51% · 394 games48% · 396 games
Dragon KnightNightfall
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
52% · 364 games59% · 32 games
BrewmasterWs
Brewmaster
Treant Protector
Treant Protectormonodrama
55% · 21 game48% · 91 game
Skywrath MageMira
Skywrath Mage
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonani-san
49% · 307 games47% · 413 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct18:43
Rune Eaters 37%Aurora Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzyowaai
44% · 40 games50% · 102 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEthereal
51% · 341 game54% · 238 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Pudge
PudgeAnkou
54% · 91 game54% · 170 games
AxeWs
Axe
Ringmaster
Ringmasterani-san
46% · 311 games45% · 247 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Undying
Undyingmonodrama
47% · 140 games54% · 166 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 78%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2