Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CHILLAXwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Puckoften banned
hAze · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
Dragon Knight
TA2000 · 1 game
Iooften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
Linaoften banned
hAze · 1 game
Marsoften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Watson · 1 game
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
468 picks · 276 bans
Mars
402 picks · 542 bans
Weaver
347 picks · 457 bans
Queen of Pain
338 picks · 494 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 531 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 517 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 371 bans
Tiny
260 picks · 287 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% CHILLAX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:35
Rune Eaters 46%CHILLAX 54%
The model gave 54% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 37:39.
Game 2prediction missed30:17
Rune Eaters 46%CHILLAX 54%
The model gave 54% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 34:49.
Game 3prediction correct44:47
Rune Eaters 46%CHILLAX 54%
The model gave 54% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 1:03:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 54%
Series resultCHILLAX 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3