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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
cybercatsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%

cybercats

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fezor · 11 games
27%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 8 games
25%
Bane
Bane
Hduo · 7 games
29%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shigetsu · 6 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 6 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Hduo · 5 games
40%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 5 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 627 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 505 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
438 picks · 277 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
410 picks · 533 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
358 picks · 804 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 519 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 563 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 565 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:31
Rune Eaters 61%cybercats 39%
The model gave 61% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by cybercats in 46:57.
Game 2prediction missed9:24
Rune Eaters 61%cybercats 39%
The model gave 61% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by cybercats in 32:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 61%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2